GDP rises by 4.9%
The volume of gross domestic product was 4.9% higher in Hungary in the 3rd quarter of 2018 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Most industries contributed to the growth, market-based services to the greatest extent. According to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data the performance of the economy was up by 5.2% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year and by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter. In the 1st–3rd quarters of 2018 the economic performance – based on unadjusted data – was 4.8% higher than a year earlier.
In the 3rd quarter of 2018 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year:
The volume of GDP was up by 4.9%. Compared with the 3rd-quarter figure issued in the flash estimate, the second estimate indicated a 0.1 percentage point higher volume increase. The revision to the previously published volume index was mainly due to the more favourable performance of market-based services than expected and a significant growth of the branches in industry with higher value added content.
Production approach:
The value added of agriculture was 3.4% higher than one year earlier. The performance of industry increased by 2.7%, within which that of manufacturing by 2.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. All of the manufacturing branches with relatively large weight were up with the exception of the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c and of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. The value added of construction rose by 28%, within which there was a marked increase in all the branches.
Table 1: Volume indices of production of gross domestic product (GDP)
(corresponding period of previous year = 100.0%)
| NACE | Industries | 2017 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter | ||||||
| III | IV | I | II | III | ||
| A | Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 93.8 | 89.8 | 100.6 | 102.0 | 103.4 |
| B–E | Manufacturing, mining and quarrying and other industry | 103.2 | 102.2 | 102.3 | 103.8 | 102.7 |
| C | Of which: manufacturing | 104.1 | 102.8 | 102.8 | 104.3 | 102.5 |
| F | Construction | 115.6 | 121.1 | 120.1 | 123.8 | 127.5 |
| G–T | Services, total, of which: | 104.8 | 105.0 | 105.2 | 104.6 | 103.8 |
| G+I | Wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food service activities | 108.5 | 109.0 | 108.9 | 108.2 | 106.9 |
| H | Transportation and storage | 104.6 | 105.7 | 107.4 | 105.8 | 103.7 |
| J | Information and communication | 112.8 | 111.1 | 110.2 | 104.9 | 105.1 |
| K | Financial and insurance activities | 104.0 | 103.7 | 102.4 | 102.6 | 102.5 |
| L | Real estate activities | 101.7 | 104.7 | 104.2 | 104.6 | 104.0 |
| M–N | Professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities | 112.9 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 107.0 | 106.4 |
| O–Q | Public administration, education and health and social work activities | 97.6 | 96.8 | 100.2 | 100.3 | 100.0 |
| R–T | Arts, entertainment and other services | 104.4 | 102.8 | 108.1 | 107.1 | 104.9 |
| GDP, total (at purchasers’ prices) | 104.1 | 104.5 | 104.5 | 104.9 | 104.9 | |
The gross value added of services went up by 3.8% in total, the highest growth (6.9%) was reached in wholesale and retail trade as well as accommodation and food service activities. The total performance of professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities increased by 6.4%. The value added of information and communication rose by 5.1% and that of transportation and storage by 3.7%. The performance of financial and insurance activities was up by 2.5%, which was largely due to the improvement of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM), in addition, the loans and deposits of non-financial corporations and households rose as well. The total value added of public administration, education and health was unchanged.
Services contributed by 2.2 percentage points, construction by 1.1 percentage points and industry by 0.6 percentage point to the 4.9% increase of gross domestic product in the 3rd quarter of 2018. Within services the most significant contribution was observed for wholesale and retail trade as well as accommodation and food service activities and professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities (0.7 percentage point and 0.5 percentage point, respectively).
Expenditure approach:
The actual final consumption of households increased by 4.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. Household final consumption expenditure, representing the largest proportion of the components of the actual final consumption of households, went up by 5.3%, within which volume increases were measured in most of the groups of expenditure, too. Out of the groups of expenditure, the volume rose at rates exceeding the average in the case of recreation and culture, furnishings and households equipment, communication, transport as well as other products and services. The (domestic) consumption expenditure of households realised on the territory of Hungary was up by 5.9%.
The volume of social transfers in kind from the government grew by 2.2%, that of the actual final consumption of the government practically stagnated (+0.1%). The volume of social transfers in kind from non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) became 3.0% higher.
As a result of the above trends, actual final consumption rose by 4.0%.
Gross fixed capital formation went on increasing substantially, it was 20% higher in the 3rd quarter than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The volume of investments in construction and in machinery and equipment both went up considerably, the former at a higher rate. The volume of investment grew in almost all of the industries.
Gross capital formation increased by 15% compared to a year earlier.
Domestic use as a whole was up by 7.2% in the 3rd quarter.
Table 2: Volume indices of final use of gross domestic product (GDP)
(corresponding period of previous year = 100.0%)
| Items of use | 2017 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter | |||||
| III | IV | I | II | III | |
| Household final consumption expenditure | 104.6 | 105.5 | 105.9 | 105.4 | 105.3 |
| Social transfers in kind from government | 103.3 | 102.8 | 101.7 | 101.5 | 102.2 |
| Social transfers in kind from NPISHs | 116.9 | 108.5 | 109.0 | 109.5 | 103.0 |
| Actual final consumption of households | 104.7 | 105.1 | 105.3 | 104.8 | 104.7 |
| Actual final consumption of government | 102.3 | 110.0 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 100.1 |
| Actual final consumption, total | 104.4 | 105.8 | 104.6 | 104.2 | 104.0 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 118.8 | 111.6 | 117.1 | 115.0 | 120.0 |
| Changes in inventoriesa) | x | x | x | x | x |
| Acquisitions less disposals of valuablesa) | x | x | x | x | x |
| Gross capital formation, total | 120.6 | 106.3 | 110.4 | 107.6 | 114.9 |
| Domestic use, total | 108.3 | 105.8 | 105.8 | 105.0 | 107.2 |
| Exports, of which: | 103.1 | 105.4 | 104.2 | 108.6 | 103.4 |
| Exports of goods | 102.7 | 104.8 | 103.9 | 109.1 | 103.2 |
| Exports of services | 104.4 | 107.5 | 105.0 | 106.8 | 104.2 |
| Imports, of which: | 107.8 | 107.0 | 105.5 | 109.1 | 105.9 |
| Imports of goods | 107.8 | 108.3 | 107.0 | 110.2 | 106.6 |
| Imports of services | 107.6 | 100.7 | 97.3 | 103.1 | 102.6 |
| External balance of goods and servicesa) | x | x | x | x | x |
| Gross domestic product (GDP), total | 104.1 | 104.5 | 104.5 | 104.9 | 104.9 |
a) For these items the volume index is not applicable.
In the external trade of the national economy a surplus of 444 billion forints was generated, lower at current prices than one year earlier, within which the balance of trade in goods turned into a deficit. The volume of exports rose by 3.4% and that of imports by 5.9%. In trade in goods, exports grew by 3.2% and imports by 6.6%. Within the external trade of the national economy, the exports of services (including tourism) increased by 4.2% and their imports by 2.6% compared to a year earlier.
Actual final consumption contributed by 2.7 percentage points and gross capital formation by 4.0 percentage points to the 4.9% growth of gross domestic product in the 3rd quarter of 2018. The balance of external trade as a whole slowed down the growth of economic performance by 1.7 percentage points.
In the 3rd quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter:
According to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data the performance of the economy was up by 1.3%. (Comparison to the previous quarter is always based on seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data.)
From the production approach, gross value added grew by 7.6% in construction, by 3.0% in agriculture, by 0.9% in services and by 0.4% in industry.
From the expenditure approach, household final consumption expenditure went up by 1.2%, the volume of social transfers in kind from the government by 0.3% and that of the actual final consumption of the government remained unchanged out of the components of actual final consumption. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 5.4%. In external trade, exports lessened by 2.6% and imports by 0.5%.