Fewer births and deaths, declining natural decrease
According to preliminary data, in January-September 2018, the number of live births was 2.2% and that of deceases was 1.9% fewer than in the same period of 2017. The natural decrease was by 380 (1.3%) fewer, than in the first nine months of 2017. In September 2018, the number of live births was 3.0% fewer and that of deceases was 0.2% more than a year earlier. The monthly natural decrease was 1,896 persons, by 269 more than in September 2017.
In September 2018:
7,922 children were born, 3.0% or by 249 infants fewer than in September 2017.
The number of the deceased was 9,818, which meant an increase of 0.2%, numerically only 20 more deceases than in the same month of the previous year.
As a result of the decrease in the number of births and a lower decline in the number of deaths, the natural decrease was 1,896 as opposed to 1,627 in September 2017, which meant an increase of 17%.
The number of marriages decreased, and the number of 6,577 marriages registered was by 341 (4.9%) fewer than the figure in September 2017.
In January–September 2018:
67,283 children were born, 1,523 (2.2%) fewer than in January–September 2017. In January, June and July a slight increase, in February–May a 3.7% and in August-September a 3.2% decline was registered on average in the number of live births compared to a year earlier. The largest drop of 7.2% occurred in May.
The estimated total fertility rate was 1.49, compared with the value of 1.50 calculated for the same period of the previous year.
97,273 people died, 1.9% or numerically 1,903 fewer than in the same period of the previous year. The largest monthly decrease and increase were recorded in the first quarter of the year so far. While in January, nearly 22% fewer, in March more than 15% more people died than in the corresponding months of the previous year. The reason for this may be have been that this year the peak of the flu epidemic was later than last year. Then, the number of deaths fell by 1.6% in April–June on average and increased by1.9% in July–-September.
The number of live births decreased numerically less than that of deaths, as a result of which the natural decrease fell from 30,370 in January–September 2017 to 29,990 persons, which meant an improvement of 1.3%.
The number of marriages was 43,258, 0.5% or numerically 210 more than in the 1st–3rd quarters last year. In the 1st quarter, which is out of the wedding season, the number of marriages did not change significantly compared to the same period of 2017. Then, in May–June and August, a year-on-year increase, while in the other months a year-on-year decrease was registered. The largest increase of 8.8% was in August, i.e. in the peak of the wedding season, and the most significant, 9.1% drop was recorded in July. This latter was due to the fact that there were one more weekends in the base period of last July.
There were 9.2 live births and 13.3 deceases per thousand inhabitants, both of them were 0.2 per mille point lower than the value of January–September 2017, as a result of which the 4.1 per mille rate of natural decrease did not change. The number of infant deaths was 3.4 per thousand live births, which meant a decrease of 0.2 per mille point compared to the value in the same period of the previous year. The marriage rate of 5.9 per mille was the same as a year earlier.
Main data of vital events, January–September 2018
| Vital event | Number | Change compared to the same period of the previous year, % | Per thousand inhabitants | Change compared to the same period of the previous year, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live birth | 67 283 | –2.2 | 9.2 | –2.0 |
| Death | 97 273 | –1.9 | 13.3 | –1.7 |
| Infant death | 228 | –6.9 | 3.4a) | –4.8 |
| Natural decrease | –29 990 | –1.3 | –4.1 | –1.1 |
| Marriage | 43 258 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 0.7 |
a) Per thousand live births.
The number of births declined in all regions, except for a slight increase of 0.7% in Western Transdanubia. The most significant decline was recorded in Central Transdanubia and Southern Transdanubia (4.1% and 3.8%, respectively).
The number of deaths increased slightly, by 1.9% in Northern Great Plain, while it declined in the other seven regions. The largest decrease was recorded in Southern Great Plain and Southern Transdanubia (–4.1% and –3.5%, respectively), while the lowest one was in Central Transdanubia and Pest region (–1.1% and –1.2%, respectively).
The rate of natural decrease increased significantly (by 18%) in Northern Great Plain mainly due to an increase in the number of deaths and in Central Transdanubia to a lower extent (by 4.8%), and it declined in the other regions. Due to the slight decrease in the number of births and the above average decline in the number of deaths, the natural decrease fell the most in Western Transdanubia (–7.1%%).
The number of marriages increased in six and decreased in two regions. The largest increase was registered in Northern Great Plain (2.2%), and the largest decrease to the same extent was in Southern Great Plain (–2.2%).
Main data of vital events by region, January–September 2018
| Region | Live birth | Death | Natural decrease | Marriage | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| number | change, %a) | number | change, %a) | number | change, %a) | number | change, %a) | |
| Budapest | 11 351 | –1.4 | 15 824 | –2.7 | –4 473 | –5.8 | 7 740 | 0.2 |
| Pest | 9 099 | –0.9 | 10 999 | –1.2 | –1 900 | –2.2 | 5 258 | 1.2 |
| Central Transdanubia | 6 874 | –4.1 | 10 736 | –1.1 | –3 862 | 4.8 | 4 791 | 1.8 |
| Western Transdanubia | 6 257 | 0.7 | 9 547 | –2.2 | –3 290 | –7.1 | 4 154 | 0.9 |
| Southern Transdanubia | 5 503 | –3.8 | 9 542 | –3.5 | –4 039 | –3.1 | 3 775 | 0.3 |
| Northern Hungary | 8 683 | –2.2 | 12 570 | –2.7 | –3 887 | –4.0 | 5 166 | –0.7 |
| Northern Great Plain | 10 960 | –2.3 | 14 332 | 1.9 | –3 372 | 18.2 | 6 526 | 2.2 |
| Southern Great Plain | 8 049 | –3.3 | 13 326 | –4.1 | –5 277 | –5.2 | 5 318 | –2.2 |
| Totalb) | 67 283 | –2.2 | 97 273 | –1.9 | –29 990 | –1.3 | 43 258 | 0.5 |
a) Compared to the same period of the previous year.
b) Including data which can't be broken down by regions.