Published on: 21 December 2018

Fewer births and deaths, declining natural decrease

According to preliminary data, in January-October 2018, the number of live births was 1.8% and that of deceases was 1.4% fewer than in the same period of 2017. The natural decrease was by 169 (0.5%) fewer, than in the first ten months of 2017. In October 2018, the number of live births was 1.0% and that of deceases was 0.9% more than a year earlier. The monthly natural decrease was 2,768 persons, by 19 more than in October 2017.

In October 2018:

7,953 children were born, 1.0% or by 76 infants more, than in October 2017.

The number of the deceased was 10,721, which meant an increase of 0.9%, and numerically 95 more deceases than in the same month of the previous year.

The surplus in the number of deaths exceeded that in the number of births, as a result of which, the natural decrease was 2,768 as opposed to 2,749 in October 2017, which meant an increase of 0.7%.

The number of marriages increased, and the number of 3,377 matrimonies registered was by 168 (5.2%) more than the figure in October 2017.

In January–October 2018:

75,272 children were born, 1,411 (1.8%) fewer, than in January–October 2017. In January, June–July and October a slight increase, while in February–May a 3.7% and in August–September a 3.0% decline was registered on average in the number of live births compared to a year earlier. The largest drop of 7.2% occurred in May.

The estimated total fertility rate was 1.49 compared with the value of 1.50 calculated for the same period of the previous year.

108,222 people died, 1.4% or numerically 1,580 fewer, than in the same period of the previous year. The largest monthly decrease and increase were recorded in the first quarter of the year so far. While in January, nearly 22% fewer, in March more than 15% more people died than in the corresponding months of the previous year. The reason for this may have been that this year the peak of the flu epidemic was later than last year. Then, the number of deaths fell by 1.6% in April–June on average and increased by 2.2% in July–October.

The number of live births decreased numerically less, than that of deaths, as a result of which the natural decrease fell from 33,119 in January–October 2017 to 32,950 persons in the corresponding period of 2018, which meant an improvement of 0.5%.

The number of marriages was 46,740, 1.0% or numerically 483 more than in the first ten months last year. In the 1st quarter, which is out of the wedding season, the number of marriages did not change significantly compared to the same period of 2017. Then, in May–June, August and October a year-on-year increase, while in the other months a year-on-year decrease was registered. The largest increase of 9.0% was in August, i.e. in the peak of the wedding season, and the most significant, 9.1% drop was recorded in July. This latter was due to the fact that there were one more weekend last July.

There were 9.2 live births and 13.3 deceases per thousand inhabitants, both of them were 0.2 per mille point lower than the value of January–October 2017, as a result of which the 4.0 per mille rate of natural decrease did not change significantly. The number of infant deaths was 3.4 per thousand live births, which meant a decrease of 0.2 per mille point compared to the value a year earlier. The marriage rate of 5.7 per mille was nearly 0.1 per mille point higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Main data of vital events, January–October 2018

Vital event Number Change compared to the same period of the previous year, % Per thousand inhabitants Change compared to the same period of the previous year, %
Live birth75,272–1.89.2–1.6
Death108,222–1.413.3–1.2
Infant death253–7.73.4a)–5.9
Natural increase / decrease–32,950–0.5–4.0–0.3
Marriage46,7401.05.71.2

a) Per thousand live births.