GDP rises by 5.1%
The volume of gross domestic product was 5.1% higher in Hungary in the 4th quarter of 2018 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Most industries contributed to the growth, market-based services to the greatest extent. According to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data the performance of the economy was up by 4.9% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year and by 1.0% compared to the previous quarter. In 2018 the volume of GDP grew by 4.9% compared to a year earlier.
In the 4th quarter of 2018 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year:
The volume of GDP was up by 5.1%. Compared with the 4th-quarter figure issued in the flash estimate, the second estimate indicates a 0.1 percentage point higher volume increase, which is mainly due to the more favourable performance of services.
Production approach:
The value added of agriculture was 8.3% higher than one year earlier. The performance of industry increased by 4.1%, within which that of manufacturing by 4.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. The performance was up in all of the manufacturing branches with relatively large weight with the exception of the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. The value added of construction rose by 20%, within which there was a marked increase in all the branches.
Table 1: Volume indices of production of gross domestic product (GDP)
(corresponding period of previous year = 100.0%)
| NACE | Industries | 2017 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter | ||||||
| IV | IR | IIR | IIIR | IV | ||
| A | Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 89.8 | 105.3 | 105.6 | 103.2 | 108.3 |
| B–E | Manufacturing, mining and quarrying and other industry | 102.2 | 102.4 | 103.8 | 102.5 | 104.1 |
| C | Of which: manufacturing | 102.8 | 102.9 | 104.2 | 102.3 | 104.3 |
| F | Construction | 121.1 | 119.4 | 122.5 | 127.9 | 120.4 |
| G–T | Services, total, of which: | 105.0 | 105.2 | 104.5 | 104.2 | 103.9 |
| G+I | Wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food service activities | 109.0 | 108.7 | 107.8 | 107.4 | 107.9 |
| H | Transportation and storage | 105.7 | 106.6 | 104.1 | 104.4 | 103.7 |
| J | Information and communication | 111.1 | 110.9 | 105.8 | 105.6 | 107.3 |
| K | Financial and insurance activities | 103.7 | 102.5 | 102.7 | 102.6 | 102.0 |
| L | Real estate activities | 104.7 | 103.5 | 104.8 | 104.2 | 104.8 |
| M–N | Professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities | 112.3 | 107.6 | 106.8 | 106.6 | 105.3 |
| O–Q | Public administration, education and health and social work activities | 96.8 | 100.3 | 100.3 | 100.4 | 99.7 |
| R–T | Arts, entertainment and other services | 102.8 | 108.9 | 106.7 | 105.1 | 102.5 |
| GDP, total (at purchasers’ prices) | 104.5 | 104.6 | 104.9 | 105.1 | 105.1 | |
R: Revised data.
The gross value added of services went up by 3.9% in total, the highest growth (7.9%) was reached in wholesale and retail trade as well as accommodation and food service activities. The value added of information and communication rose by 7.3%. The total performance of professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities increased by 5.3%, that of transportation and storage by 3.7%. The performance of financial and insurance activities was up by 2.0%, which was largely due to the improvement of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM), in addition, the loans and deposits of non-financial corporations and households rose as well. The total value added of public administration, education and health decreased by 0.3%.
Services contributed by 2.3 percentage points, construction by 0.9 percentage point and industry by 0.8 percentage point to the 5.1% increase of gross domestic product in the 4th quarter of 2018. Within services the most significant contribution (0.9 percentage point) was observed for wholesale and retail trade as well as accommodation and food service activities.
Expenditure approach:
The actual final consumption of households increased by 4.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. Household final consumption expenditure, representing the largest proportion of the components of the actual final consumption of households, went up by 5.0%, within which volume increases were measured in most of the groups of expenditure, too. Out of the groups of expenditure, the volume rose at rates exceeding the average in the case of furnishings and households equipment, recreation and culture, communication as well as transport. The (domestic) consumption expenditure of households realised on the territory of Hungary was up by 5.1%.
The volume of social transfers in kind from the government grew by 1.0%, that of the actual final consumption of the government decreased significantly, by 7.0%. The volume of social transfers in kind from non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) became 4.3% higher.
As a result of the above trends, actual final consumption rose by 2.6%.
Gross fixed capital formation went on increasing substantially, it was 17% higher in the 4th quarter than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The volume of investments in construction and in machinery and equipment both went up, the former at a higher rate. In the industries with the largest weight (manufacturing, transportation and storage and real estate activities) the volume of investments rose.
Gross capital formation increased by 21% compared to a year earlier.
Domestic use as a whole was up by 7.2% in the 4th quarter.
Table 2: Volume indices of final use of gross domestic product (GDP)
(corresponding period of previous year = 100.0%)
| Items of use | 2017 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter | |||||
| IV | IR | IIR | IIIR | IV | |
| Household final consumption expenditure | 105.5 | 105.6 | 105.4 | 105.4 | 105.0 |
| Social transfers in kind from government | 102.8 | 102.4 | 100.2 | 100.2 | 101.0 |
| Social transfers in kind from NPISHs | 108.5 | 109.0 | 109.5 | 103.0 | 104.3 |
| Actual final consumption of households | 105.1 | 105.2 | 104.6 | 104.4 | 104.3 |
| Actual final consumption of government | 110.0 | 100.8 | 99.3 | 99.6 | 93.0 |
| Actual final consumption, total | 105.8 | 104.6 | 103.8 | 103.7 | 102.6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 111.6 | 110.5 | 115.6 | 120.0 | 117.2 |
| Changes in inventoriesa) | x | x | x | x | x |
| Acquisitions less disposals of valuablesa) | x | x | x | x | x |
| Gross capital formation, total | 106.3 | 111.0 | 113.4 | 120.8 | 120.7 |
| Domestic use, total | 105.8 | 105.9 | 106.0 | 108.6 | 107.2 |
| Exports, of which: | 105.4 | 104.0 | 107.1 | 102.3 | 105.6 |
| Exports of goods | 104.8 | 103.8 | 106.0 | 100.7 | 106.6 |
| Exports of services | 107.5 | 104.5 | 111.0 | 107.5 | 102.0 |
| Imports, of which: | 107.0 | 105.3 | 108.5 | 106.2 | 108.2 |
| Imports of goods | 108.3 | 105.8 | 108.8 | 105.8 | 108.8 |
| Imports of services | 100.7 | 102.5 | 107.0 | 108.3 | 105.4 |
| External balance of goods and servicesa) | x | x | x | x | x |
| Gross domestic product (GDP), total | 104.5 | 104.6 | 104.9 | 105.1 | 105.1 |
a) For these items the volume index is not applicable.
R: Revised data.
In the external trade of the national economy a surplus of 394 billion forints was generated, lower at current prices than one year earlier, along with the balance of trade in goods being in deficit. The volume of exports rose by 5.6% and that of imports by 8.2%. In trade in goods, exports grew by 6.6% and imports by 8.8%. Within the external trade of the national economy, the exports of services (including tourism) increased by 2.0% and their imports by 5.4% compared to a year earlier.
Actual final consumption contributed by 1.8 percentage points and gross capital formation by 5.0 percentage points to the 5.1% growth of gross domestic product in the 4th quarter of 2018. The balance of external trade as a whole slowed down the growth of economic performance by 1.7 percentage points.
In the 4th quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter, based on seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data:
The performance of the economy was up by 1.0%.
From the production approach, gross value added grew by 1.2% in construction, by 1.0% in agriculture, by 0.9% in industry and by 0.8% in services.
From the expenditure approach, household final consumption expenditure increased by 1.1% and the volume of social transfers in kind from the government by 0.3%, while that of the actual final consumption of the government was cut by 1.1% out of the components of actual final consumption. Gross fixed capital formation went up by 2.7%. In external trade, exports rose by 3.6% and imports by 1.7%.
In 2018 compared to the previous year:
According to the first estimation the value of GDP was 42,073 billion forints at current prices, its volume grew by 4.9%. Based on seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data the performance of the economy was up by 5.0% compared to the previous year.
From the production approach, gross value added increased by 23% in construction, by 5.3% in agriculture, by 4.4% in services and by 3.2% in industry.
Services contributed by 2.4 percentage points, construction by 0.8 percentage point, industry by 0.7 percentage point and agriculture by 0.2 percentage point to the growth of GDP.
From the expenditure approach, the actual final consumption of households was up by 4.6%, the actual final consumption of the government decreased by 2.1%, and as a total result of these, actual final consumption rose by 3.7%. Both gross capital formation and gross fixed capital formation within this became 17% higher. Exports grew by 4.7% and imports by 7.1%.
From the expenditure approach, actual final consumption increased the GDP growth rate by 2.6 percentage points and gross capital formation by 3.9 percentage points. The balance of external trade as a whole slowed down the growth of economic performance by 1.5 percentage points.