The data collection regarding the external trade in goods – in accordance with the methodology of the European Union – is built on three pillars:
statistics on external trade in goods transacted with the EU member states based on data received via questionnaires from companies participating in the external trade in goods (Intrastat),
statistics on external trade in goods transacted with the EU member states based on the so-called external trade in goods microdata (MDE) received from EU member states (Intrastat),
and data on external trade in goods transacted with countries outside the EU, based on the records of the National Tax and Customs Administration prepared during customs procedures (Extrastat).
The Intrastat coverage of the EU turnover is not full-scale. Sellers below the data supply threshold (about three-quarter of enterprises transacting within the EU external trade in goods) are exempted from the information providing obligation. The applied threshold value ensures about 95-97% of total turnover coverage. Data of enterprises exempted (partially or totally) from data supply obligation as well as of non-responding ones are estimated and completed by the HCSO by using administrative data sources and time series.
Scope of observation: the observation of the external trade in goods turnover is based on taking stock of products crossing the borders of the country's economic territory. With the limitation that – except goods transported under active inward processing or processing under customs supervision as well as transit transactions, - products entering or being transported abroad from customs warehouses or commercial free zones are not included in the statistics.
The value of external trade in goods turnover is expressed in terms of CIF for imports and FOB parity for exports. CIF: the market value of the imported goods at the Hungarian border, including the transport and insurance costs incurred in transporting the goods to the border. FOB: the market value of the exported goods at the Hungarian border, including the transport and insurance costs incurred in transporting the goods to the border.
In the case of EU transactions, the conversion of transactions concluded in foreign currency into HUF is carried out at the bank's mid-exchange rate of the day of the contract performance, as specified in the data provider's accounting policy. The data published in EUR and US dollar are calculated by the HCSO from values calculated in HUF, based on the average monthly exchange rate of the National Bank of Hungary.
Base data are collected according to the Combined Nomenclature (CN), a mandatory customs and foreign trade statistical classification for EU member states.
The foreign trade turnover balance is the difference between the value of export and import turnover.
The classification by main commodity groups is prepared according to the UN Standard International Trade Classification (SITC Rev. 4).
The data, detailed by groups of countries are based on the observation according to the country of destination in the case of exports and the country of dispatch (not the country of origin) in the case of imports.
Methodological change starting from 2025
Hungary’s statistics on intra-EU trade in goods are compiled according to a new methodology, within the Intrastat 2.0 system starting from January 2025. The new methodology is extended to the use of new data sources, as well as data imputation and data validation processes.
A key component of the new methodology applied from 2025 is the use of microdata exchange (MDE) data received from Eurostat within the external trade microdata exchange, used on one hand in determining data of data supply obligation exempt enterprises, on the other, in supplementing data not received by the deadline. Another novelty is the B2C-type (intra-EU) electronic trade in goods accounting based on OSS (One-Stop-Shop) data, as well as use of the so-called H7 data. The latter refers to low-value (under EUR 150), imports from non-EU countries by private individuals, provided to the HCSO by the National Tax and Customs Administration.
A further key component of the methodological change is a sounder statistical methodology for data imputation and data validation processes.
Methodology for calculating the price, value and volume indices of foreign trade turnover starting from 2025:
The basic principle of compiling external trade in goods price statistics is that the price changes of the goods included in the external trade turnover are determined in a manner consistent with the accounting of the external trade in goods, based on the same elementary data. The use of elementary data of the external trade in goods (OSAP 2012 – Intrastat arrival; OSAP 2010 – Intrastat dispatches; OSAP 1475 – Customs declaration data) allows these to be prepared and processed at item level in accordance with the compilation of price indices.
The method used up until 2024 was based on representative data collection and on the use of external trade in goods (already processed) data, prepared for publication, significantly different from the procedure introduced from 2025: not only in methodology but also in resource requirements. The new procedure is based exclusively on processing elementary data originating from above data sources, eliminating representative data collection and errors resulting from sampling.
The multitude whose price changes are described by price indices is the range of products included in Hungary’s external trade turnover realised within the framework of 'Transactions involving actual change of ownership with financial compensation', with the exception of direct sales with/between private consumers. Return and replacement of goods, transactions involving intended change of ownership or change of ownership without financial compensation, transactions with a view to processing under contract, transactions following processing under contract and barter transactions, rental, loan and leasing transactions are not included in the scope of observation.
The methodology applied from 2025 creates the possibility of outlier filtering before processing the elementary data in order to determine the most reliable and accurate price change. Outliers are identified and filtered using statistical indicators, by considering the characteristics of the distribution of unit prices, as such the applied procedure fits the individual characteristics of the products.
The previously applied method, using hierarchical aggregation at the KN8-SITC3-SITC2-SITC1-SITC Commodity Group-Main Index levels, produced the desired price indices by further averaging the aggregated indices. The new methodology composes the average price indices at each aggregation level from the individual price index data at the KN8 level, as such avoids differences resulting from averaging and multiple averaging.
Monthly price indices are determined on two bases: compared to the previous month and to the same month of the previous year. The quarterly price indices are determined from the elementary data of the given quarter, also on two bases, compared to the previous quarter and to the same quarter of the previous year. The annual price change is generated as the product of the monthly chain indices (Fisher indices).
In addition to price indices, value indices are also determined using the same data sources and procedure, and volume indices are then compiled as the rate of value and price indices for the same main commodity groups and for the groups of countries.
Methodological sources: Intrastat forms; Intrastat Guide & Manual; European business statistics compilers' manual for international trade in goods statistics – detailed data – 2025 edition