The Earth's population to approach 7.8 billion in 2020

Based on the latest calculations of the UN, the planet’s population has risen by 2.8 billion since 1987 and will approach 7.8 billion in 2020.Source: The 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects. (https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/).^[1]

According to the world organisation’s medium-level projectionPopulation projection is the forecast of the number and composition of the population for future dates, which is generally made in more than one variant based on assuming different future developments of basic demographic events (fertility, mortality, migration). Detailed world population developments mentioned in the present publication were prepared on the basis of the UN’s medium-level model.^[2], our planet’s population will continue to increase in the future, though at a decelerating rate. 37 years were needed to double the 1950 figure of 2.5 billion, following which the 1987 population of 5 billion is expected to double to 10 billion after 70 years, by 2057. Presumably 10.9 billion people will live on the Earth in 2100, the farthest year in the projection.

The population projection provides important information for implementing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) for 2030, too, the main objective of which is to ensure a better future for all of our planet, billions of people all over the world.

The world's population increasing at a decelerating rate

Looking back into the past centuries, population grew at an ever-accelerating rate, and exploded from the middle of the last century. All this can be explained by the demographic transition that already took place in developed countries at the end of the 19th century and during the 20th century also occurring in developing countries and regions: mortality conditions enormously improved, in parallel, life expectancy rose. Although fertility decreased, with improving mortality people live longer, and all this resulted in a substantial population growth.

The population evolution is different in each country, they are in different stages of demographic transition.

The rate of increase of the world’s population was the most substantial in the second half of the 1960s and at the beginning of the 1970s, when the population number went up by over 2% a year. This value lessened from 1990, today, the Earth’s population grows by 1.1% a year. According to UN projections, the population number will further rise, though because of a permanent decline in fertility a further slowdown is expected: an annual population growth of around 0.5% is projected for 2050 and of merely about 0.03% by the end of the century.

Population evolution of different rate in each continent

The population evolution is different in each continent depending on in which stage of demographic transition the continent is. All this significantly influences the distribution of the Earth’s population by continent.

• The most substantial population explosion takes place on the continent of Africa, where the population number increased 5.9-fold between 1950 and 2020.
• The second largest, nearly four-fold growth occurred in Latin America and Caribbean Islands, but the population of Asia and Oceania rose 3.3-fold as well in this period.
• Meanwhile, the population number of North America somewhat more than doubled.
• The smallest (1.4-fold) growth was in Europe.

60% of the world's population live in Asia, however, their weight is expected to decrease in the future

Nowadays, nearly 60% of the world’s population, more than 4.6 billion people live in Asia. It is followed in order by Africa (17.2%, 1.3 billion people), Europe (9.6%, 747.6 million people), Latin America and Caribbean Islands (8.4%, 654 million people), North America (4.7%, 368.9 million people) and at last Oceania, with the smallest population number (0.5%, 42.7 million people).

According to the UN’s projection, there will be radical changes in the population number of the different continents until 2100.

• Asia will remain the most populous continent with 4.7 billion people, but this will be already a declining population number compared to the peak of 5.3 billion in the middle of the 2050s.
• The proportion of Africa is expected to significantly increase in the future. The growth continues to be the highest in this continent, its present population number will double by 2055 and with a 59% increase will approximate 4.3 billion by the end of the century. Its projected 39.4% share of the world’s population will be hardly below Asia’s 43.4% by 2100.
• Europe’s weight will permanently go down: its proportion of 21.7% in 1950 will shrink to 9.6% by 2020 and to 5.8% by 2100. However, not only will the share of Europe decrease but also its population number: by 37 million until 2050 and by a further 81 million in the subsequent fifty years.
• A decline is expected, too, in the population number of Asia, Latin America and Caribbean Islands in addition to Europe in the last fifty years of the century, but the old continent is the only one for which a lower population number is projected than the current one already by 2050.
• North America’s population number will grow – with a continuous rise – 1.3-fold compared to the present one by 2100, approximating 491 million.

China and India to remain the two most populous countries in the world

China and India are the two most populous countries on our planet, 18% of the world’s population live in each of these (1.4 billion people in each). More people live in each of these two Asian countries than in the three continents with the smallest population number altogether.

China and India will remain the two most populous countries on the Earth according to the projection. India’s population is expected to reach China’s by 2027, when the population of both countries will probably exceed 1.4 billion, following which India will pull ahead and is expected to reach its maximum population number (1.7 billion) at the end of the 2050s. China’s population will start to slightly decrease from the beginning of the 2030s (which results from China’s one-child family policy, introduced in 1979).

Out of the countries the most intensive population growth is recorded for India and Nigeria, they together will make up nearly one-quarter of the global growth in the period of 2020–2050. Nigeria, the seventh most populous country nowadays, may rise to be the third most populous state on the Earth by 2047, overtaking even the United States.

Over half the world's population live in the ten most populous countries

Nearly 60% of the world’s population live in the present ten most populous countries, which are the following:

• China, India, United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico.

The latter two states will not be part of this list any more by 2050 and, in addition to Nigeria, two other African countries (Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) will be included. Africa’s excess weight will go on increasing by 2100, since five countries from this continent will already be among the ten countries with the largest population: Egypt and Tanzania will catch up with the formerly mentioned three. A substantial part of the global growth will be attributed to merely a few African countries.

The governments of more developed countries have to face low fertility, a decline in the proportion of the active population of working age, accelerating ageing of society, and problems of sustainability of the different provision systems, while shortage of food, poverty, lack of education, teenage pregnancy, unemployment and the provision of basic health and social services are serious challenges in less developed regions of the world.

Ageing global population

The ageing of the population takes place in parallel with the increase in the number of people living on the Earth. The change in the composition of the population by age is well illustrated by the ageing index, which is the number of people aged 65 years or over per hundred child-aged population of 0–14 years of age.

The ageing index was low (of 14–15%) in the world back in the 1950s, since when, however, its value has continuously risen:

• it is 36.7% nowadays,
• it might exceed 75% by 2050
• and 100% by 2075,
• and a value of nearly 130% is projected for 2100.

The reason behind was a fall in fertility from the 1970s and life expectancies becoming longer to an extent never experienced until then. According to the estimations, the proportion of children aged under 15 years will shrink from 34.3% to 17.4%, while that of people aged 65 years or over will increase more than 4-fold (from 5.1% to 22.6%) within the population from 1950 to the end of the 21st century.

In the development of the ageing index over time, there are significant disparities between the different continents. Europe had the highest value of the indicator among the continents in 1950 (30.2%) as well as today (119%). It will keep this leading role for long decades according to the UN’s projection, however, Latin America and Caribbean Islands will take its place around 2085. The most dynamic rise of the ageing index is expected in the latter continent, because of which the number of old-aged people per 100 child-aged population will be 227 there in 2100. In Africa, by contrast, the child-aged population will be much larger than the 65-year-old or older one even at the end of the century.

The ageing index in Europe exceeded 100% already in 2010. In North America, the number of the old-aged population is expected to be higher than that of the child-aged one (108%) in 2025. The indicator will reach 100% in Asia as well as in Latin America and Caribbean Islands presumably in about 2050, and in Oceania even later, around 2065.

Following several decades of a continuous rise, the value of the index is expected to stagnate in Europe between 2060 and 2075, when the number of 65-year-old or older people there will be twice as high as that of the 0–14-year-old population. After this, the excess weight of old-aged people there will only slightly rise.

The ageing index in Hungary – apart from smaller fluctuations – closely follows the European trend. There are nearly 140 old people per hundred child-aged population in our country at present. Hungary will reach the value of about 150% around 2025 according to the estimations, and the value of the indicator is expected to be around 206% in 2100.

Fertility highest in Africa

The decelerating rate of population growth is determined by the decreasing trend of the level of fertility. Fertility is measured with the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the average number of children a woman would give birth to during her lifetime. The average number of children per woman went down to the half, from 5.0 to 2.5 worldwide between 1950 and 2020.

As for the continents, there was a nearly 2.5-fold disparity between the highest (Africa: 6.6) and the lowest value (Europe: 2.7) at the beginning of the 1950s. The rate started to decrease everywhere except for Africa from the second half of the 1960s, the continent of Africa followed the rest of the continents only with a lag of nearly twenty years. In connection with this:

• the level of fertility has been the highest in Africa all through from 1950 to date and will be according to the UN’s projection through to 2100. The decline in this continent was 33%, lower than the global average, the number of children per woman is 4.4 there on average at present.
• The value of the TFR fell by more than 60%, from 5.8 to 2.2 in Asia between 1950 and 2020. The most substantial decrease among Asian countries was observed for China, where the average number of children per woman dropped from 6.1 to 1.7.
• Europe was among the continents with the lowest fertility all through the period under review, however, the average number of children there was still higher than 2.1, needed for the reproduction of the population, until the beginning of the 1970s. The value of the indicator was only 1.9 in the continent in 1980–1985 and did not reach even the level of 1.5 in 1995–2000. A small rise was recorded for the last 15 years, the value of the TFR is 1.6 there at present.
• It is North America – with a value of around 1.8 – that is the closest to Europe nowadays in terms of fertility.

Fertility of countries expected to approximate one another

According to the theory of TFR transition – on which the UN’s projection is based, too – the fertility rate will be around 2 in each country on the Earth by the end of the century, irrespective of level of development. The evolution of the TFR can be split into three large stages according to the theory.

• Stage one is the pre-transition period, in which fertility is high.
• In stage two, the TFR starts to decrease from this high level and may sink even below the level needed for reproduction.
• Following this, in stage three, the TFR may approach again or even reach the level of reproduction.

Certainly, the different countries can be in different stages at the same time.

Hungary is on the threshold of stage three according to the UN’s projection: a TFR of 1.54 is estimated for the period of 2020–2025, which will go on rising in the later decades and may approximate 1.8 until 2100.

The average number of children is supposed to continuously go down by the end of the century in countries with high fertility at present and is expected to increase in countries with low fertility. As a result, the level of fertility of the different continents will strongly approximate one another:

• the disparity between the highest and the lowest value is expected to be 1.8-fold by 2050 and merely 1.2-fold by the end of the century.
• Europe’s fertility level will rise by over 10%, from the present 1.6 to 1.8 by 2100, overtaking this way the rates of Asia and Latin America.
• Fertility required for the level of reproduction is expected solely for Africa out of the continents by the end of the century.

The previously presented significant decrease in fertility will only slow down the rate of population increase, since generations born earlier on and comprising a larger number of people will – even with fertility below the reproduction level – bear more children than the number of deaths with mortality improving.

Average age of child-bearing rising all over the world

According to the UN’s estimation, females’ average age at child-bearing may rise the most in Asia as well as Latin America and Caribbean Islands in the coming decades. The value of the indicator was 27.8 years in Asia and 27.3 years in Latin America and Caribbean Islands in the period of 2015–2020, which may rise to 30.6 and 30.7 years, respectively, by the end of the century. In Europe, the average age at child-bearing is among the highest ones in the world in addition to a low level of TFR, and all this also means that females have already their first child at a later and later age. Mothers’ average age at child-bearing was between 29 and 30 years in Europe and North America between 2015 and 2020, which may be extended to 32 and 31.2 years, respectively, until 2100. The age will not already rise in effect in North America after 2025–2030, it will become constant from that time on according to the UN’s projection. If the case of Hungary is compared with these values, it can be concluded that females’ average age there at child-bearing will follow the European trend in the long run. The value of the indicator was 29.6 years in Hungary in the period of 2015–2020, which may reach 31 years by 2035–2040 and may approach 32 years by 2100.

Life expectancies growing longer

The population number of the world is highly influenced by fertility as well as mortality, and to illustrate this, average life expectancy at birth is the most suitable indicator, which shows the number of years of lifetime an infant born in a particular year can expect at the mortality level of the year of her/his birth.

As the demographic indicators examined earlier, this indicator shows substantial differences, too, by continent. From this angle, however, not only the continent may have a role but also whether a female or a male is in question. Life expectancies are generally more favourable for females, members of the fair sex may count on a higher age than males irrespective of the level of development of a country.

The disparities between the continents were the largest in the 1950s, yet there has been a certain degree of approach by today. With the development of medical sciences and with a significant improvement in public health conditions all over the world, life expectancies in the history of mankind have never become longer yet to an extent that was seen between 1950 and 2020, when the average life expectancy at birth went up from 47 to 72.3 years. This trend seems to rise uninterruptedly by the end of the century, the value of the indicator will go up to 81.7 years according to the projection.

• A new-born baby could count on fewer than 40 years in Africa in 1950, and life expectancy exceeded this age only slightly in Asia.
• Life expectancy at birth is 64.4 years for females and 60.9 years for males in Africa at present. The two corresponding values are 75.5 and 71.2 years, respectively, in Asia.
• Life expectancy has been the most favourable in North America. However, life expectancy at birth may be somewhat higher in the case of European females than the values for North America after 2020. The estimated life expectancy at birth will be 82.0 years for females and 77.1 years for males in North America between 2020 and 2025 according to the UN’s calculations. In comparison, the life expectancy of European males will be somewhat less favourable (75.9 years), while that of European females will be somewhat higher (82.3 years).

The differences in length of life between the continents will keep decreasing until 2100, but even so several years of disparities are projected between Africa and North America, the two continents with the extreme values. According to the UN, the average life expectancy will be 78.6 years for females and 73.9 years for males in Africa by the end of the century, and these values will be around 90.5 and 87.4 years, respectively, in North America.

The figures for Hungary are lower than the average values for Europe in the period between 1970 and 2100. And only males could hope for a few months longer life in Hungary than the European average in the interval between 1950 and 1970. Life expectancy at birth is 80.1 years for females and 73.0 years for males in Hungary today.

Prospects in the European Union

According to Eurostat’s dataThe source of data on the EU-27 is the database of Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database).^[3], the population of the 27 member countries of the EU – apart from the United Kingdom due to Brexit, entering into effect in February 2020 – was 446.8 million on 1 January 2019. The population of these countries increased by 92.3 million or 26% in the last six decades. Life expectancy during this time rose uninterruptedly in the western European countries, while ex-socialist countries were hit by an epidemiological crisis, and only the social impacts of the regime change in 1990 allowed life expectancies to become longer there later. A new-born baby could expect 81 years in the European Union in 2018, compared with only 77.6 years in 2002. Along with a gradual rise in life expectancy, the total fertility rate in Europe fails to reach 2.1, the value needed for reproduction, the population increase results mainly from immigration. At the same time, the TFR of 1.43 in 2002 rose to 1.55 by 2018. All this reveals the challenges the continent will have to face owing to the ageing of the population.

Member States with growing population

There are large differences in the direction of changes in the population number of EU countries and in the factors behind. Population actually decreased in 10 and increased in 17 of the 27 Member States of the EU in 2018. Not natural increase but immigration had a leading part in the case of countries with a growing population number, apart from France, the only exception.

The most significant migration surplus was registered in Malta (35.3 per mille), Luxembourg (16.3 per mille), Cyprus (9.3 per mille) and Ireland (9.0 per mille).

The largest natural increase per thousand population was recorded for Ireland (6.2 per mille), Cyprus (4.1 per mille), Luxembourg (3.2 per mille), Sweden (2.3 per mille) and France (2.2 per mille) in 2018.

Out of countries with a growing population, natural population decrease was offset by migration surplus in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Spain and Slovenia, while the positive balance of births and deaths compensated the migration loss in the case of France.

Member States with decreasing population

There was actual population decrease in ten EU countries in 2018. Seven of these belong to the newly acceded east central European countries. It is true for five of the countries with a declining population number that both natural vital events and the migration balance reduced the population there. The highest rate of population decrease was recorded for Latvia (–7.5 per mille), Bulgaria (–7.1 per mille) and Croatia (–7.1 per mille). The highest natural decrease in the European Union hit Bulgaria (–6.6 per mille) and Latvia (–4.9 per mille). Five of the countries with a decreasing population number had a positive migration balance.

Ever-ageing EU

According to the population projectionThe projection for the EU-27 is the baseline variant of EUROPOP2019, prepared by Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database).^[4] prepared by Eurostat, the population of the EU-27 will grow somewhat and reach 449.3 million in the coming few years (until 2026), following which, however, the trend will turn into a decrease. The total population of the 27 Member States of the EU may be around 441.2 million in the middle of the century, in 2050, and it may go down to 416.1 million until 2100. As a long-term consequence of fertility stagnating below reproduction level and life prospects improving continuously, natural decrease is projected for the EU as a whole.

The most populous Member State of the EU on 1 January 2019 was Germany, with a population of over 83 million. With the exit of the United Kingdom, France (67 million people) was in the second place and Italy (60.4 million people) stood on the third level of the podium. These rankings will remain unchanged in the future according to Eurostat’s projection, but the population of Germany and France may slightly grow (by 0.2% and 3.9%, respectively), while the number of inhabitants in Italy may decrease (by 14.8%) until the end of the century. The population decrease in Hungary will be continuous according to the projection, however, its rate will be lower and lower after 2070: the population may decline from the present 9.8 million to 8.9 million by 2070 and to 8.7 million by 2100.

The highest ageing indices are expected in Malta (280.4%), Poland (269.5%), Italy (268.2%), Finland (258.6%) and Croatia (252.3%) in 2100 according to the projection.

However, there will be a high degree of ageing not only in these countries but in all Member States of the EU, since nearly twice as many 65-year-old or older people as child-aged ones will live in 2100 even in Sweden, to have the lowest ageing index (197.2%) of that time.

The lowest ageing indices were measured for Ireland (68.6%), Luxembourg (89.6%) and Cyprus (99.9%) in 2019. At present, there is considerable immigration into these countries.

The mostly ageing European countries include Italy (173.1%), Portugal (159.4%) and Germany (158.4%) nowadays.

The ageing index reached 132.9% in Hungary in 2019, which will gradually rise in the future: almost twice as many old-aged people as 0–14-year-olds will live in our country in 2050, and the index may equal no less than 224.1% at the end of the century.

[1]:↑ Source: The 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects. (https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/).

[2]:↑ Population projection is the forecast of the number and composition of the population for future dates, which is generally made in more than one variant based on assuming different future developments of basic demographic events (fertility, mortality, migration). Detailed world population developments mentioned in the present publication were prepared on the basis of the UN’s medium-level model.

[3]:↑ The source of data on the EU-27 is the database of Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database).

[4]:↑ The projection for the EU-27 is the baseline variant of EUROPOP2019, prepared by Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database).

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