Summary

The number of the population was 9,769 thousand in Hungary on 1 January 2020, 3.3 thousand fewer than a year earlier. The number of births went down slightly and that of deaths to a higher extent in 2019, which lowered the rate of natural decrease. The number of marriages rose spectacularly, and induced abortions went on following a declining trend. The rise in the number of divorces, infant deaths and foetal deaths compared to the previous year was an unfavourable phenomenon. 89,200 children were born and 129,600 inhabitants died in 2019 according to preliminary data. Natural decrease equalled 40,400, which was 2% lower than one year earlier. Despite the decrease in the number of births, the total fertility rate of 1.49 was the same as in the previous year. This means that along with an unchanged willingness to bear a child, the decrease in the number of births was due solely to a fall in the number of the female population of child-bearing age. The international immigration surplus lowered the extent of natural decrease in the population. As a result, the actual decrease of the population was 3.3 thousand, 41% less than a year earlier.

After a long decrease the number of births reached its historic low of 88 thousand in 2011. It was followed by a rising trend, owing to which more than 93 thousand children were born in 2016. The number of births decreased again in the past three years, fluctuating below 90 thousand in 2018 and 2019. The number of births in 2019, estimated at 89,200, was 0.7% less or some 600 fewer than in the previous year. The reason for this is that along with stagnating willingness to bear a child, the number of females of child-bearing age declined significantly.

The number of deaths went below 130 thousand first in 2011 after more than three decades and remained below this level in the subsequent five years except in 2015. The number of deaths rose significantly, by 3.6%, to 131.7 thousand in 2017, then it followed a declining trend in the next two years and fell below 130 thousand again in 2019. Deaths, estimated at 129,600, were 1.1% lower or some 1,450 fewer in number than one year earlier.

The basically decreasing trend of infant deaths was broken by rises only in a few years in the last three decades. The number of deaths under 1 year of age per thousand live births fell below 5 per mille first in 2011, and following a further improvement the infant mortality of 3.4 per mille in 2018 has been the lowest value measured so far. The number of deaths under 1 year of age went up by about 10% or 31, and its value per thousand live births by 0.4 per mille point to 3.8 per mille in 2019.

Following a long and significant decrease the number of marriages reached its local minimum in 2010 at 35.5 thousand marriages. In the subsequent six years the number of matrimonies went up considerably, and was above 50 thousand in 2016 for the first time in twenty years. After a decrease in 2017, the number of marriages grew slightly in 2018, then skyrocketed in 2019. The number of marriages, estimated at 65,300, was some 29% or 14.5 thousand more than the number of matrimonies in the previous year and has been the highest number of marriages since 1991. A higher rate of increase than this last occurred in 1946, when couples made up for the marriages delayed during the years of World War II.

The number of divorces was around 24–25 thousand in the decade following the turn of the millennium, then, as a result of the decrease starting from the end of the decade, it fell below 20 thousand in 2014, for the first time in fifty years. In the years following a rise in 2015, the rate of decrease accelerated, and the number of divorces went down by 13% in the three years between 2016 and 2018. The slightly fewer than 17 thousand divorces in 2018 have been the lowest value since 1960. In 2019, the trend of decline stopped and courts dissolved 17,400 marriages, so the number of divorces increased by 2.6% or 450.

The higher decline in the number of deaths than in births lowered the rate of natural decrease. The natural decrease of the population, the negative balance of the two vital events, was 40,400 in 2019, which was a slight decline of 2.0% compared to the previous year. The actual decrease of the population number was considerably smaller, 3.3 thousand as a result of the positive international migration balance, having increased compared to 2018. The balance of international migration lowered natural decrease by 37,100 in 2019.

Changes in the age structure of the population can be described by the number of people in three large age groups and by their share within the population. The number of the 0–14-year-old child-aged population decreased only slightly compared to the previous year, and their share of the total population was invariably 14.5%. The number of 15–64-year-old people of working age became 56 thousand fewer and their proportion diminished as well, from 66.1% to 65.6%. The process of ageing of the population is still observed. The number of inhabitants aged 65 years or over rose by nearly 52 thousand, and their share within the population was up from 19.3% a year earlier to 19.9%. Because of the decrease in the number and share of the population of working age there were 22 child-aged and 30 old-aged inhabitants per hundred people of working age on 1 January 2020, both values slightly rising compared to one year earlier. Contributors to the process of ageing of the population were the rise in the number of old-aged people as well as the declining number of the child-aged population. The ratio of these two population groups is expressed in the most suggestive manner by the ageing index. The number and share of inhabitants aged 65 years or over exceeded those of the 0–14-year-old child-aged population first in 2005, since when the excess of old-aged people has continuously grown. There were 137 old-aged inhabitants per hundred child-aged population on 1 January 2020, compared with 133 on the same date in the previous year.

Immigration surplus substantially lowers natural decrease

The population number of Hungary was 9,769 thousand on 1 January 2020 according to the continuous estimation based on the 2011 population census. The largest population number in the current territory of the country was registered on 1 January 1981, at 10,713 thousand.

• The natural decrease, which started in the course of 1981, has been continuous for thirty-nine years, though at a varying pace. The negative balance of the number of births and deaths caused the population number to decline by 1,224 thousand between 1981 and 2020. The largest natural decrease occurred in 1999, when the population number decreased by nearly 48.6 thousand over a year, and the largest decline following the turn of the millennium was in 2018, with a natural decrease of 41.2 thousand.
• To calculate the actual decrease of the population number, the balance of international migration needs to be taken into consideration, too. The actual decrease came to 944 thousand between 1 January 1981 and 2020, i.e. 280 thousand fewer than what natural decrease shows. This means that the number of the population grew by 280 thousand on the whole owing to the positive balance of international migration. The positive balance of migration could lower the natural decrease in the population number by 35.6 thousand in 2018 and by some 37.1 thousand in 2019.

The number of deaths was higher than that of births in every county in Hungary in 2019. However, the extent of natural decrease resulting from this was different:

• the population decrease was considerably faster than the national average in Békés, Nógrád and Zala Counties – between 7.3 and 8.3 per mille –, owing to the lower birth rates and the higher death rates there than the average.
• However, the birth rates were relatively high and the death rates relatively low, and, consequently, the natural decrease was the lowest, between 1.5 and 2.6 per mille, in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Pest, Győr-Moson-Sopron and Hajdú-Bihar Counties, mainly due to the younger age structure there than the national average.

There were five larger territorial units in the country in 2019 where despite the natural decrease the number of the population actually increased as a combined effect of internal and international migration.

The population of Pest County was up by nearly 14.2 per mille, which was mostly due to internal migration.

The higher-than-average internal and international migration both contributed to the nearly 12.4 per mille increase in the population number of Győr-Moson-Sopron County.

Komárom-Esztergom, Vas and Fejér Counties also increased their population, though to a lower extent than the previous ones. Mainly international migration contributed to the rise of the population number in Komárom-Esztergom and Vas Counties, and both migration flows did so in the case of Fejér County.

The balance of both internal and international migration was positive – though to different degrees – in all of the territorial units with a growing population number.

Also Pest and Győr-Moson-Sopron Counties recorded the highest internal migration gain per thousand population, with 12.5 and 9.1 per mille, respectively, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and Békés Counties suffered the largest outward internal migration, but the population decrease resulting from outward internal migration was significant in Tolna and Hajdú-Bihar Counties as well.

Komárom-Esztergom and Győr-Moson-Sopron Counties as well as the capital proved to be the most attractive territorial units in respect of international migration in 2019, but the positive balance of international migration increased the population number more than the national average also in Csongrád-Csanád, Vas and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg Counties. Despite the international immigration surplus the population number was smaller in Budapest compared to the previous year. In addition to natural decrease, outward internal migration also reduced the population of the capital, and the gain from international migration could not offset all this.

Development of number of births increasingly due to change in number of females of child-bearing age

After a long decreasing trend the number of births fell below hundred thousand first in 1998, and it was at a basically low level, ranging between 95 thousand and 100 thousand in the decade following the turn of the millennium. Following another considerable decrease in 2010, it was not even 90 thousand in 2011. The 88,049 new-born babies registered that year represented the lowest number of births in the past one and a half centuries’ history of vital statistics in Hungary, and in terms of its order of magnitude it was only less than half the number of births in the middle of the 1970s. Then, with some fluctuations, a slow rise started, as a result of which there were 93,063 new-born babies in 2016, 5.7% or 5,014 more than in 2011, when the lowest point was recorded. The rising trend stopped in the last three years, and the number of births started to decrease again. The 91.6 thousand new-born babies in 2017 were nearly 1,500 fewer (1.6% less) than in the previous year, and the 89.8 thousand births in 2018 showed another decrease, which was about 1,800 (1.9%).

The first months of 2019 projected a further decline in the number of births. Some 900 fewer children were born in the first quarter, which went up to 1,150 by the end of the half-year. After an equal number of births in the third quarter, the number of births decreased by about 1,200 or 1.4% in the first eleven months of the year compared to the same period of the previous year. There was an outstandingly high rise of 8.2% in the number of births in December 2019, which implied a growth of about 600, and halved in one month the decrease in births accumulated until then during the year. So the 89.2 thousand births estimated for 2019 were some 600 fewer or 0.7% less than in the previous year. Fewer children were born in five months, about as many in four months and more in three months during the year than one year earlier. The significant rise in the number of births in December was due to the base effect as well, for the number of births in December 2018 was remarkably low compared to the corresponding months of earlier years.

The various age groups of females of child-bearing age contributed differently to the slight decrease in the number of births. Fewer children were born in almost all age groups than a year earlier, the exceptions were only the age groups of 25–29-year-olds and the oldest, 45–49-year-olds.

• The most significant fall of some 900 was measured for females in their 30s, those who have an important role in shaping the total number of births, too, since almost the half of new-born babies are born to them.
• The number of births to young females aged under 25 years also went down, about 400 fewer children were born to them than one year earlier.
• A substantial rise of 750 in the number of births was only recorded for females in the second half of their 20s, which, together with an increase of 55 in births to females aged over 45 years lowered by some 800 the decrease of 1,400 in the number of births observed for the other age groups.

The direction and extent of change in the number of births basically depend on two factors: the number of females of child-bearing age and the level of their fertility, as well as changes in these compared to the previous year. The decrease in the number of births in 2019 took place in parallel with a decline of nearly 18 thousand in the number of females of child-bearing age.

• There were about 10 thousand fewer females in the age groups under 25 years than one year earlier, mainly because of a significant decrease in the number of births in the 1990s.
• The number of females in the age groups of 25–34-year-olds slightly rose.
• The largest fall was recorded among females aged 35–39 years, their number was 16.7 thousand smaller than a year earlier. This was dominantly influenced by a significant decline in the number of births at the beginning of the 1980s compared to earlier on.
• However, the number of females aged 45–49 years, the oldest ones of child-bearing age, went up substantially, by some 7.5 thousand, mostly due to a significant rise in the number of births in the middle of the 1970s.

The primary reason for the decrease in the number of births is that the number of potential mothers became smaller, in addition, the level of their fertility – or, in other words, the frequency of child-bearing in the various age groups – was very different, too.

• Both the number and fertility of teenagers diminished, therefore, they gave birth to fewer children.
• The fertility of females aged 20–24 years slightly rose, however, their number significantly decreased, and mainly this led to a smaller number of new-born babies in the age group than in the previous year.
• Both the fertility and number of females aged 25–29 years went up, the combined effect of the two factors implied a substantial rise in the number of births to them.
• There was no considerable change in the number of 30–34-year-old females, however, their fertility decreased, so this was the dominant factor of the fall in the number of births to them.
• The considerable decrease in the number of females aged 35–39 years could not be compensated by the small rise of 3.3% in their fertility, so the number of children born to them went down, too.
• The most substantial rise was measured in the fertility of 45–49-year-old females, while their number grew as well, however, all this implied an increase of only 55 in births because of their very low level of fertility compared to the other age groups.

An important factor of the annual number of births is the proportion of new-born babies born within married and unmarried partnerships. The proportion of births outside marriage rose continuously in the past decades, it increased more than two-fold, from 13% to 29% between 1990 and 2000. It began to rise rapidly again after a short break following the turn of the millennium, and reached nearly 48% in 2015, which has been its peak so far. The number and proportion of children born outside marriage fell in the last four years. Most probably, this may be attributed to the dynamic rise in the number of marriages in the past decade and the explosion in their number in 2019.

61% of children were born within and 39% outside marriage in 2019. This was a significant change compared to the ratio of 56% to 44% a year earlier. The decrease in the number of births in 2019 resulted completely from the decline in the number of children born outside marriage, their number going down by some 5,100 or nearly 13%, while the number of those born within marriage rose by 9.0% or about 4,500.

As for the age of mothers, the number and proportion of children born within marriage grew in all age groups, while those of children born outside marriage decreased, except for 45–49-year-olds.

Children are invariably born dominantly outside marriage in the case of young mothers aged under 25 years, but the proportion of births within marriage went up at a higher rate than the average, too, among them compared to the previous year.

The proportion of births outside marriage fell at the highest pace for females in their 30s, in the age groups where the proportion of births outside marriage had been the lowest and of births within marriage the highest. 72% of 30–39-year-old females gave birth to their children within marriage and only 28% of them bore children outside marriage in 2019.

At the fertility level of 2019, hundred females would give birth to 149 children during their lifetime, numerically as many as in the three earlier years. The unchanged level of fertility has been paralleled by a decreasing number of births for three years. 93.1 thousand children were born back in 2016, compared with 89.2 thousand in 2019. The decrease of 3.9 thousand in the number of new-born babies resulted from the fall in the number of females of child-bearing age. Fewer potential mothers give birth to fewer children even at an unchanged level of fertility. The fertility level of 2019 was still considerably lower than the number of children of about 210, which is necessary on average for simple reproduction. The gross reproduction rate was 0.722, i.e. thousand females would give birth to 722 female children during their lifetime at the fertility level of 2019, and the number of people in the children’s generations growing up as a result would be some 28% lower than the number of people in the parents’ generations.

Compared with the historic low of 123 children per hundred females in 2011, the 149 children in 2019 was a 21% rise in fertility. In case the fertility for 2011 had persisted, about 16 thousand fewer children would have been born in 2019 and 104 thousand fewer over the eight years since 2011 than were actually born. Nevertheless, the number of females of child-bearing age was down by some 154 thousand or about 6.5% between 2011 and 2019. If the number of the female population of 2011 is considered as unchanged, 16.6 thousand more children would have been born in 2019 than were actually born.

In parallel with a decrease in induced abortions, number of foetal deaths goes up

The decreasing trend of induced abortions, having been observed for a long time, continued but the rate of decline lessened compared to the previous year. The 25.8 thousand interventions in 2019 were some 1,100 fewer or 4.2% less than one year earlier. The number of induced abortions per thousand females of child-bearing age was 11.6 as opposed to 12.0 a year earlier. The downward trend could be observed in all age groups except for 20–24-year-old females. According to the age profile of induced abortions

• induced abortions were the most frequent among females in their early 20s, and the declining trend was the most unstable in this age group, too.
• Along with a general fall in the last ten years, the frequency of induced abortions to 20–24-year-old females rose in 2013, 2016 as well as 2019 compared to the previous year.
• There was a lower-than-average decrease in the rest of the age groups of females under 35 years of age.
• The rate of decline was considerably higher than the average, however, among females aged 35 years or over, for whom the frequency of induced abortions is otherwise the lowest.

Compared to the previous year, the number of induced abortions fell more than that of births, as a result of which there were 28.9 induced abortions per hundred live births in 2019, compared with 30 in 2018.

Foetal deaths are the total number of early and medium-term foetal deaths (spontaneous miscarriages) and stillbirths. The 16.5 thousand foetal deaths estimated for 2019 rose by 1.7% compared to 2018. It is difficult to set a clear trend for foetal deaths. Their number ranged between 16.2 thousand and 17.2 thousand in the past ten years, and fluctuated substantially year by year. The 16.2 thousand foetal deaths in 2018 have been the lowest since 2010, the 1.7% increase of 280 in these deaths occurred in comparison with that. As in 2019 the number of births diminished, foetal deaths per hundred live births went up year on year, from 18.1 to 18.5. Foetal deaths represent a potential reserve for a rise in the number of births, because in the vast majority of cases these are desired conceptions, where mothers lose their foetus against their will.

Foetal deaths and induced abortions together make up foetal losses. Their number lessened somewhat due to the fall of induced abortions, and foetal losses per hundred live births decreased as well. The number of foetal losses per hundred live births was 47.4 in 2019, compared with 48.1 in the previous year. This is still a very high value, since it means that there is one foetal loss for almost every two live births.

Number of marriages rises spectacularly

As a result of a long-lasting and significant decrease, the number of marriages reached a low in 2010 with one of the lowest values in the history of vital statistics so far. The 35.5 thousand marriages that year were only somewhat more than one-third of the more than 100 thousand marriages registered in the middle of the 1970s, which represented a local maximum. There was a positive shift from this low, as a result of which the number of marriages was up almost one-and-a-half-fold in six years. The number of matrimonies rose above 50 thousand in 2016 for the first time in twenty-one years, approximating 52 thousand, and, following a minor decrease, remained above 50 thousand until 2018. The number of marriages went up spectacularly in 2019. Estimated at 65.3 thousand, marriages were 14.5 thousand or nearly 29% higher in number than in the previous year.

• The dynamic growth in the number of marriages was observed, though to differing degrees, in all age groups of females and males.
• The highest rises of 37–38% occurred in the age groups of females aged 20–24 and 30–34 years, but the rate of increase exceeded 30% in all age groups of 20–39-year-old females.
• Among males, the nearly 37% rise for those in the age group of 25–29-year-olds was outstanding, though the rise was above 30% everywhere among 25–39-year-olds.
• The lowest rates of rise were recorded for the youngest age group of those aged under 20 years and the oldest age group of people aged over 60 years, with growths of 3–7%, in the case of both sexes.
• The largest part of the increase in marriages came from the age groups of 25–34-year-olds, 62% of the total increase for females and 58% for males were registered in these age groups.

The picture is clearer if in addition to absolute numbers we measure the intensity of marriages, with the number of matrimonies per thousand unmarried females or males of corresponding age. The value of this indicator is influenced not only by the number of unmarried people of corresponding age, i.e. of those who may potentially enter into marriage, but also by their share of the population. The frequency of marriages rose in all age groups of unmarried males and females in 2019.

• For females, the age group of 20–24-year-olds was outstanding here, too, as well as that of 35–39-year-olds, the growth in the frequency of marriages was above 40% in these, but unmarried females entered into marriage 34–45% more often in all age groups of 20–39-year-olds than one year earlier.
• The highest pace of increase in the frequency of marriages was recorded in these age groups in the case of males as well, for whom the values of 25–29- and 35–39-year-olds were outstanding, with growths of around 40%, but due to the age difference within couples entering into marriage, 40–44-year-old unmarried males entered into marriage 23% more often, too, than a year earlier.

Number of registered partnerships on the decrease

On 1 July 2009, marital status was extended with a new category of law, namely registered partnership.¹ 67 registered partnerships were formed in the second half of 2009 and 80 in 2010, the first whole year. This number was decreasing year by year until 2013, and 30 such partnerships were registered altogether by registrars that year. Their number rose again continuously from 2014, and it increased substantially in 2018 (130 cases) compared to one year earlier. The growth stopped in 2019 (110 registered same-sex partnerships), but the number of these partnerships has been the second highest since the introduction of the relevant legislation. The number of this type of partnerships has been higher among men than among women every year: 67 male and 43 female couples were registered by registrars in 2019. The decline compared to the previous year was due mainly to the decrease in the number of male partnerships, for the number of registered same-sex partners hardly changed among women, it lessened from 44 to 43. As a result, the ratio of men to women changed from 66% to 34% in the previous year to 61% to 39% in 2019. In the case of more than the half (62%) of such partnerships the members of the couples were inhabitants of Budapest or Pest County. Men initiated the official procedure at the age of 39 years and women at the age of 37 years on average. The average difference of age was 9.8 years between male and 6.0 years between female partners.

Number of divorces slightly rises

The number of divorces, stagnating on a high level of around 24 thousand–25 thousand per year following the turn of the millennium, started to follow a declining trend from the end of the decade and fell below 20 thousand in 2014, for the first time in fifty years. Although the improving trend stopped in 2015 and the number of divorces rose once more above 20 thousand, it went on lessening in the next three years: some 17 thousand marriages were dissolved in 2018. The number of divorces in 2019, estimated at 17.4 thousand, was 2.6% higher than in the previous year. The rise affected to varying degrees the couples belonging to the different age groups, the number of divorces going up for the majority of them but decreasing among married couples aged 35–44 years.

• The rise in divorces mostly affected couples with longer duration of marriage, about 70% of all divorced couples belonged to the age groups of 45-year-old or older people.
• Among younger married couples the number of divorces went up mainly in the age group of 25–29-year-olds.
• The number of divorces rose by some 900 as a whole in the age groups of females aged under 35 years or aged 45 years or over, which was lowered by a decrease of 450 in the number of divorces of 35–44-year-olds.

The growing number of divorces may be consistent with the dynamic rise in marriages, since the number of couples entering into marriage was up by 43% between 2010 and 2018, raising this way the proportion of those in the population who may potentially divorce.²

The frequency of divorces by age gives the number of divorces pronounced by a court per thousand married females or males of corresponding age. The pattern of frequency of divorces by age shows a different picture among males and females. Divorces were more frequent in all age groups of females under 40 years of age than among males of similar age, while the frequency of divorces was higher among males in all age groups over 40 years of age. Divorces were the most frequent equally for 35–44-year-old females and males out of thousand married people in 2019. Differences in divorce frequencies by sex are influenced among others by the different age at marriage of married parties.

If we observe the year-on-year change in the frequency of divorces by age, the picture is slightly different than in the case of the change in absolute numbers.

• The frequency of divorces increased at the highest rate among married females under 25 years of age in 2019. Relatively few people get married at this age, however, more frequent divorces suggest that marriages at young age are less deliberate and stable, and may end up in divorce after a short duration of marriage. There was no substantial change among 25–34-year-old females compared to the previous year, and not only the absolute number of divorces but also the frequency of divorces per existing marriages lessened compared to a year earlier for 35–44-year-old females. The decline occurred in the age groups among whom the frequency of divorces was otherwise the highest. In addition to absolute numbers, the frequency of divorces also rose in the age groups of females aged over 45 years, especially for females in their 50s. It is true that the frequency of divorces is relatively low in this age group, therefore, it is more sensitive to annual changes, but the 18% rise is even so noticeable.
• For males, too, rises were observed in all age groups of those aged over 45 years, besides, the frequency of divorces of 25–29-year-old married males went up to a remarkable extent, which, looking at the age difference between married parties, can be justified with the divorces of 20–24-year-old females, growing likewise. Among males as well as for females, the frequency of divorces decreased in the age groups (35–44-year-olds) where marriages are otherwise dissolved the most often. The frequency of divorces of teenagers rose by over 30% for both males and females, among whom, however, the proportion of married people is very low, so even relatively small fluctuations in absolute numbers may imply substantial changes in frequencies.

The number of married people increases due to new marriages but declines owing to divorces and widowing. The balance of marriages compares the number of new and of ceased marriages. If there are more new marriages than ceased ones, then the balance is positive, otherwise it is negative. The balance of marriages was positive in 2019 for the first time in forty years. This was dominantly due to the nearly 29% rise in new marriages. Marriages ceased owing to deaths were on the decrease, and although the number of divorces rose compared to the previous year, it did so at a considerably lower rate than at which the number of new marriages increased. 60,300 marriages ceased in 2019, some 420 fewer than in 2018, and there were 65,300 new marriages, 14.4 thousand more than one year earlier. As a result, the balance of marriages, in deficit by nearly 10 thousand in 2018, showed a surplus of 5 thousand in 2019, there were that many more new marriages than the number of marriages ceased due to deaths or divorces. The number of ceased marriages per hundred new marriages was 92 in 2019, compared with 119 in the previous year.

The negative balance of marriages, lasting for forty years, significantly modified the composition of the population by marital status. Since 1990 the share of the married population has decreased considerably, from 61% to 42%, in parallel with which the proportion of never-married people has risen from 20% to 35% and that of divorced people from 7.4% to 12% within the population aged 15 years or over. The proportion of the widowed population of around 10–11% did not change in effect. The dominance of married people ended in 2004, and since that time the unmarried population has represented the majority. The growing number of new marriages in recent years modified this tendency so far as the declining trend in the number of married people and the growing one in the number of unmarried people stopped, and the proportion of married people slightly went up and that of unmarried people slightly decreased within the 15-year-old or older population on 1 January 2020 compared to the previous year. There are significant differences between males and females:

• the highest proportion is represented by married people for both sexes,
• while the proportion of never-married people is considerably lower among females than among males,
• in contrast, the proportion of widowed females is 4.5 times and that of divorced ones is nearly 1.3 times as high.

No real changes were measured in these proportions in 2019 compared to a year earlier. The differences by sex result mainly from the different age structure for and mortality of males and females, as well as from the disparities in their habits and chances of marrying and remarrying.

Mortality lessens

The number of deaths has followed a basically decreasing trend, with some fluctuations though, since the beginning of the 1990s. The more than 150 thousand deaths in 1993 have been the highest figure for long decades. The decrease started from this level, frequently broken by single years of smaller increase or stagnation. The year 2011 was a turnaround in that the number of deaths fell below 130 thousand that year for the first time after a long while and remained below this level until 2014. The number of deceased people mostly exceeded 130 thousand in the subsequent years. The number of deaths estimated at 129,600 in 2019 was 1.1% or some 1,450 lower than in the previous year.

The monthly number of deaths developed unevenly in 2019. Data for the beginning of the year showed a gloomy picture, since there were already about 2,600 or 11% more deaths in the first two months compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. In particular the January figures were unfavourable, with a rise of some 20%, which lessened to an increase of 2.7% in deaths in February. There was a turn in March, for the substantial decrease of nearly 14% was already 1,800 fewer than in the same month of the previous year. Deaths in the first six months of the year still showed a total growth of about 970 or 1.5% in deaths. Fewer deaths were registered for each month of the second half of the year than for the same period of the previous year, which resulted in a decline of some 2,400 then. In particular the 8.1% improvement in December was considerable, which reduced the number of deaths by 1,000 over a month. So a total 1,450 fewer (1.1% less) people died over the year than one year earlier.

62,800 males and 66,800 females died in 2019. The decrease in deaths affected inhabitants of different age and sex in different ways.

Among males the number of deaths rose in six age groups, which implied an increase of 612 in deaths. Three-fourths of the total rise was recorded in two age groups, for 65–69-year-olds and 75–79-year-olds, with a growth of 462 in deaths. Deaths in the age groups of people aged 85 years or over slightly increased, too. In relative terms, the most significant rise of 26% in the number of deaths, numerically an increase of 63 in deaths, was measured for boys aged under 15 years. More than the half of this was caused by a growth in the infant mortality of new-born boys, but the deaths of 1–14-year-old boys were also up. The number of deaths decreased in the majority of male age groups, in all of the age groups of 15–64-year-olds but also among old people aged 70–74 or 80–84 years. The largest falls were observed for 30–34-year-old young people, at 15.6%, and for 60–64-year-olds, at 8.5%. These two age groups lowered the number of male deaths by 751, but the decrease among 55–59- and 80–84-year-olds was numerically significant, too, at 620. In ten age groups of males the number of deaths declined by a total 1,828, which was reduced by an increase of 612 in deaths, detected in six age groups, as a balance of which about 1,216 fewer or 1.9% less males died in 2019 than a year earlier. All this means at the same time that the largest part, 84% of the total decrease of 1,445 in 2019 was due to the decline in the deaths of males.

Among females the number of deaths was down by 229 or 0.3% in total. This balance is the result of an increase of 429 in deaths, recorded in seven age groups, and a decline of 658, observed in nine age groups. The growth of deaths was for the most part owing to a higher number of deaths of 65–79-year-old females, while two-thirds of the decline was due to fewer deaths among 45–64-year-old females than one year earlier. The deaths of females aged 80–89 years decreased as well, by 152. However, a growth of 21 in the deaths of 1–14-year-old girls was uncommon, which was a rise of 39% compared to a year earlier and numerically exceeded the increases in the deaths of females aged 30–34 or 40–44 years, which equalled 11 and 14, respectively.

There were 13.3 deaths per thousand population in 2019, 13.4 for males and 13.1 for females. The crude death rate compared to the previous year went down by 0.3 per mille point for males and remained unchanged for females. Similarly to absolute numbers, the mortality of males also decreased at a higher rate than that of females. Mortality declined in all age groups of males aged over 15 years, at the highest paces among 30–34-year-old young people and 50–54-year-old middle-aged people, by 17% and 7.3%, respectively. Mortality also decreased in the age groups of the older people for whom the absolute number of deaths grew. It means that the increase in deaths was caused solely by a rise in the number of people in a particular age group of the population, while deaths per thousand population, i.e. mortality went down in that age group. Mortality rose only among boys aged under 15 years, within which by 21% for infants under one year of age and by 36% for 1–14-year-olds. The increase of 63 in deaths compared to the previous year implied a substantial increase in their mortality.

The mortality of females went up in four age groups, and these are all age groups where the absolute number of deaths increased, too. The growth of 21 in the deaths of 1–14-year-old girls implied a 39% rise in their mortality, the mortality of young females aged 30–34 years rose by 8% and that of 40–44-year-olds by 3.3%, along with increases of 11 and 14, respectively, in their deaths. Though the highest growths in the absolute number of deaths were recorded in the age groups of females aged 65–79 years, this hardly influenced their mortality. The increase of 133 in the deaths of 70–74-year-old females compared to the previous year raised their mortality by merely 0.1%, while mortality went down for females aged 65–69 or 75–79 years in spite of growths of 115 and 110, respectively, in their deaths. Mortality improved the most significantly, by nearly 20% among 15–29-year-old young females, but the mortality of 45–49-year-old middle-aged females decreased considerably, too, by some 10% compared to the previous year.

Along with the mostly improving mortality for males and the one for females varying by age group, the difference between the two sexes was significant in 2019 too. There were no age groups among males where mortality would have been more favourable than among females, what is more, the mortality for males approximated or exceeded the double of the mortality for females in all of the age groups of 15–74-year-olds. The lowest differences between the two sexes were measured for the child-aged under 15 years of age and the oldest age group of high-aged people aged 90 years or over. Males have a considerably smaller chance of reaching this high age of life, however, the mortality for those who reached it did not already differ substantially from that for females of similar age.

In respect of the marital status of deceased people there are significant differences between males and females. This is mainly due to the differing mortality by sex and the difference in life expectancy. The vast majority, 87% of deceased people were aged 60 years or over. The higher the age of life, the larger the difference in the composition of the deceased male and female population by marital status.

• Nearly the half (49.7%) of deceased males were married before their death, the proportion of deceased married females was considerably lower than this, 18% in 2019.
• Mostly females are widowed: 62% of deceased females were widows, while 20% of deceased males were widowers before their death.
• The proportion of never-married people was more than twice as high among deceased males (13.9%) as among deceased females (6.1%).
• The smallest difference by sex between deceased people was observed between divorced males and females, but the proportion of divorced males (16.5%) exceeded that of divorced females (13.6%).

There was an increase only in the number of deceased divorced males, declines in that of deceased males with other marital status, the highest of which in the number of deceased married males in 2019 compared to the previous year. A married partnership seems to be beneficial for male mortality. The number of deceased females went down only among widows, it increased among those with other marital status, to the highest extent among the divorced ones.

Infant mortality has a decreasing significance in the total number of deaths, yet it is an indicator of outstanding importance. It is an internationally recognised measure of the state of development of the health care system and the level of prenatal and neonatal care in a particular country. Infant mortality has a key role in average life expectancy at birth, since the mortality probability before one year of age is especially high compared to mortality risks at later ages. According to the life table of 2018, the mortality probability of infant boys and infant girls was of a similar magnitude to or of the same one as that of 45-year-old males and 51-year-old females, respectively.

As a result of a general improvement in infant mortality, the mortality of new-born babies went below 5 per mille in 2011 for the first time, then after a small fluctuation it fell below 4 per mille in 2017, and plunged to a historic minimum of 3.4 per mille in 2018. The declining trend stopped in 2019, when deaths under 1 year of age per thousand live births increased to 3.8 per mille. This was a substantial rise of 11% compared to the previous year. The mortality of solely infant boys jumped, while that of infant girls remained unchanged compared to a year earlier. Out of the 335 deceased infants 192 were infant boys in 2019, the number of the latter was 33 more than in the previous year, and their mortality rose from 3.4 per mille to 4.2 per mille. Although the mortality of infant boys was higher earlier on, too, than that of infant girls, the difference between the two sexes grew significantly, for the surplus of infant boy mortality of 4% one year earlier went up to 26% in 2019.

Outward internal migration from towns on the increase

In addition to births and deaths, the direction and extent of internal migration also has an important role in changes in the number of the population in and the demographic composition of a particular area.

283 thousand people changed permanent and 297 thousand changed temporary residence in 2019, which was an increase of 4 thousand or merely 0.7% in total internal migration compared to the previous year. The rate of growth was the same as in 2018 but was lower than the substantial changes in the preceding years. The slight rise in 2019 resulted from a growth of 4 thousand in the number of people involved in permanent internal migration, while the number of temporary migrations stagnated.

In respect of total net internal migration, the trends of mobility among the different types of settlements, as observed since 2016, continued only in part, concerning Budapest and the villages, however, there was a turnaround in the trend in the case of other towns.

• The total internal migration balance of the capital was negative in 2019, too, the migration loss increased to 5,700 from 3,117 in 2018. In Budapest a loss of 7,700, larger than one year earlier, was caused by changes in permanent places of residence, while a gain of 2,000, though declining, was generated from temporary migration.
• In the other towns outward migration became typical by 2019, a total migration loss of 1,650 was measured for these settlements. The turnaround in the trend was primarily owing to the balance of permanent migrations shifting markedly into a negative direction (–1,400), though temporary migrations also produced a moderate migration loss of 250.
• The population number of villages, as opposed to Budapest and the other towns, was increased by the positive internal migration balance. The loss of 1,750 caused by temporary migrations was offset by the outstandingly high surplus of 9,100 of permanent migrations, which resulted in a total gain of 7,350 for villages.

The increasing outward migration from Budapest, the net migration of other towns, turning into a negative direction, and the considerable rise in the number of people living in villages show equally a stronger sub-urbanisation process.

In regional comparison, the internal migration balance was positive in Pest Region (16,100), Western Transdanubia (5,150) and Central Transdanubia (2,800), similarly to earlier years. The migration surplus remained outstanding but somewhat decreased in Pest Region, while there were growths in Western and Central Transdanubia compared to 2018. Outward migration was recorded for the areas of the Great Plain and Northern Hungary in 2019, too, but their migration loss slightly lessened.

Among counties, the most popular areas to live in were Pest, Győr-Moson-Sopron, Fejér, Vas and Komárom-Esztergom Counties in 2019 as well, and the internal migration balance was also positive in Veszprém County. Net internal migration per thousand population was outstanding in Pest and Győr-Moson-Sopron Counties, with rates of 12.5 per mille and 9.1 per mille, respectively.

• The migration gain of Pest County was made up mainly by people migrating there from Budapest, 14,350 more people migrated from the capital to Pest County than vice versa.
• The migration gain of 4,300 of Győr-Moson-Sopron County, having the second largest positive internal migration balance, resulted mostly from the positive net migration with Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg Counties (500 each) as well as Hajdú-Bihar County (450).
• A part of the migration surplus of Komárom-Esztergom and Vas Counties was also made up by people migrating there from Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County. The other two counties from where the migration gain was the highest were Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg and Pest Counties for Komárom-Esztergom County and Veszprém and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg Counties for Vas County.
• The positive migration balance of Fejér County was made up mainly by processes of population exchange with Pest County and Budapest, while Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok and Bács-Kiskun Counties can be highlighted in the case of Veszprém County.

Among regions, the population retaining capacity was the weakest in Northern Great Plain and Northern Hungary, but the migration loss lessened in the case of both territorial units compared to earlier years. The population number decreased by 8,350 in Northern Great Plain and by 5,000 in Northern Hungary due to internal migration. As for counties, outward migration continued to be the highest from Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén Counties in 2019, similarly to earlier years, resulting in migration losses of 5,200 and 4,550, respectively, there, which were equal to –9.4 and –7.1, respectively, per thousand population. The slightly improving but still outstandingly negative net migration of both counties was mostly owing to outward migration from there to Budapest and Pest County. Outward migration to the capital was the most typical in other areas east of the Danube, too.

* The chart shows the migration connections of counties, based on differences between inward migrations to and outward migrations from the different counties. To each of the counties with a positive migration balance we assigned the three counties where its greatest migration gain came from, while to each of the counties with a negative migration balance we linked the three counties against which it had the largest loss in the population exchange processes. The direction of the arrows in the chart indicates where more people migrate, while the colour of the arrows indicates where they migrate from. The size of the arrows reflects the size of migration balances. Counties with a positive migration balance are marked in green type colour.
⁺ Preliminary, partly estimated data.

Growing immigration surplus

In addition to internal migration, international migration also has a significant impact on the demographic situation of a particular area, immigration and emigration are fundamental elements of population change. The positive balance of international migration lowered the natural decrease in the population number of Hungary by 37,100 in 2019.

The immigration surplus from international migration reduced the population decrease mainly in Budapest as well as in Pest and Győr-Moson-Sopron Counties. The capital has stood out for years in terms of international migration, the number of people arriving from abroad was much higher in Budapest than the average in 2019, too.

The number of foreign citizens residing in Hungary for a long time with valid permits was 200,150 on 1 January 2020, they made up 2.0% of the population of the country. Out of the foreigners living here

• the majority, 66% arrived from Europe, within which mostly from the surrounding countries, especially from Ukraine (15%), Romania (11%) and Slovakia (5.3%). A significant proportion of people arrived from Germany (9.1%) as well.
• Another 26% came from Asia, primarily from China (9.8%) and Vietnam (2.9%).
• 3.6% arrived from Africa and
• 3.8% from the continent of America.

46% of the foreigners residing in Hungary lived in Budapest, 36% in towns other than the capital and 18% in villages. Their number per thousand population was outstanding in Budapest (52.3 per mille), but in addition to the capital this proportion was above 20 per mille also in Győr-Moson-Sopron, Baranya, Zala and Komárom-Esztergom Counties, while it was the lowest in Békés County (5.3 per mille). There were more males (59%) than females (41%) among foreigners living in Hungary, and their age structure was younger than that of Hungarian citizens. For both sexes, the number of people was dominant in the age group of 20–39-year-olds, they made up in total 50% of the foreigners living here.

To accurately measure the emigration of Hungarian citizens runs into difficulties due to several factors, but data available from administrative registers reveal that the increase stopped and then turned in recent years. 21,900 Hungarian citizens emigrated in 2019. 34% of emigrating Hungarians moved to Austria, 28% to Germany and 13% to the United Kingdom. The proportion of people emigrating to Austria rose compared to 2018, while the share of Germany and the United Kingdom, the other two main countries of destination, decreased among emigrants. The members of younger age groups emigrated mainly: 45% of emigrating Hungarians were under 30 years of age and 71% did not yet reach the age of 40 years. These proportions differed significantly from the age structure of the resident population in Hungary (32% and 45%, respectively). 52% of emigrants were males and by marital status the vast majority (66%) of them were never-married.

23,200 Hungarian citizens who had been born in Hungary and had emigrated re-migrated in 2019. 30% of re-migrating Hungarians came home from Austria, 28% from Germany and a further 21% from the United Kingdom. The proportion of people returning from Germany rose within their group, while the proportion of those re-migrating from Austria and the United Kingdom slightly diminished compared to the data of 2018. 64% of people returning home were aged under 40 years and 28% under 30 years. 57% of them were males, they were typically never-married (53%), though the proportion of married people was higher among them compared with emigrating Hungarians (35% and 24%, respectively).

Concepts

Resident population: total number of persons having a residence on the respective area and having no place of stay elsewhere as well as of persons having a place of stay on the same area.

Natural increase (decrease): difference between live births and deaths.

Actual increase (decrease): sum of natural increase (decrease) and of (internal and international) migration balance (+, –).

Data on vital events refer to the vital events that occurred in Hungary.

Marriage: contracted in front of a registrar acting officially, in the presence of two witnesses.

Registered partnership: from 1 July 2009, according to Act XXIX of 2009 on Registered Partnerships, a partnership contracted between two over-18-year-old same-sex persons in front of a registrar acting officially, in the presence of two witnesses.

Divorce: a marriage dissolved or annulled by a court’s decision that entered into legal force. A court’s decision dissolving or annulling the marriage enters into legal force if no further legal remedy can be raised against it.

Live birth: (according to the recommendation of the UN) birth of a foetus that gives any sign of life (such as breathing, function of the heart or pulsation of the umbilical cord), regardless of the length of pregnancy and the length of life after birth.

Total fertility rate: it expresses how many children a female would give birth to during her life at the age-specific birth rate of a given year.

Crude (gross) reproduction rate: it shows how many daughters a female would give birth to during her life at the age-specific birth rate of a given year.

Foetal loss: foetal deaths and induced abortions together.

Foetal death: death of a foetus before the delivery (complete expulsion or extraction from the mother), irrespective of the duration of pregnancy. The death is indicated by the fact that the foetus does not breathe or show any other sign of life, such as function of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord and movement of the voluntary muscles.

Induced abortion: interruption of pregnancy through intentional – surgical – intervention.

Death: (according to the recommendation of the UN) final passing away of all signs of life at any time after live birth, i.e. cessation of all life functions after birth without the capability of revival.

Infant death: death after live birth and before the completed age of one year. Still-born infants and infants who deceased on the anniversary of the birth are not counted among infant deaths.

Permanent migration: change in the place of residence when a migrant leaving her/his place of residence indicates a dwelling in another settlement as her/his place of residence.

Temporary migration: change in the place of dwelling, crossing municipal boundaries, when a migrant changes the place of dwelling while maintaining her/his place of residence and indicates her/his new dwelling as a place of stay, as well as when she/he moves from one place of stay to another place of stay.

Foreign citizen residing in Hungary: a foreign citizen having a residence or settlement document who resided in Hungary on 1 January of a given year.

Hungarian citizen emigrating from Hungary: a Hungarian citizen leaving Hungary with the intention of settling down abroad or with the aim of residing temporarily abroad.

Further data, information

Summary tables (STADAT)
Tables
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