Flash estimate of data on road traffic accidents involving personal injury, January 2026
Released: 15 May 2026
The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO), on an experimental basis and in a manner unique within the European Union, has produced a flash estimate that allows for a reliable projection of the officially published monthly accident data and bridges the time gap between the information reports issued by the National Police Headquarters (ORFK) and the official publications of the HCSO. In addition, users interested in and using the data released through the flash estimate can access information on trends in accidents involving personal injury earlier than usual.
Flash estimation of accidents
The HCSO receives the data on road traffic accidents involving personal injury from the ORFK on the 40th day following the reference month. The ORFK publishes a preliminary report on its website about the accident data of the previous month already before the data transfer (between the 10th and 20th days following the reference month) for informational purposes. These data are publicly available but cannot be used for official statistical purposes. A systematic underestimation can be observed in the ORFK’s reports compared to the data published by the HCSO. Although this difference amounts to only a few cases or persons (10–30), in the case of personal injury road accidents every single case and person counts significantly, as human lives are involved.
The Second White Paper approved in the European Union in 2011 sets a long-term road safety goal known as Vision Zero, the essence of which is to reduce the number of fatalities and serious injuries from road accidents to near zero across the EU by 2050. Both the EU and the Hungarian objectives (“Everyone is expected home”) highlight the importance of having road accident data available as early and as accurately as possible.
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Expected development in the number of accidents: According to the preliminary information from the ORFK, 755 road traffic accidents involving personal injury occurred nationwide in January 2026. Based on our flash estimate, the final figure is expected to be 746, which is 1.2% lower than the preliminary figure.
In Budapest, the initially reported number of 138 accidents may be revised to 141 according to our estimate, corresponding to a 2.3% adjustment. Thus, a larger discrepancy than the national average is likely between the preliminary and final data in the capital city.
Number of injured and fatalities: According to ORFK data, 1,090 people nationwide and 175 in Budapest were injured or lost their lives in road traffic accidents in January 2026.
Based on our forecast, the number of affected persons nationwide is expected to be 1,089, which is essentially unchanged from the preliminary data. In Budapest, this value is projected to be 181, which is 3.3% higher than the initially reported number.
Similarly to the number of accidents, a larger correction is expected in the capital case in the case of injured persons.
Number of fatalities: According to the ORFK’s preliminary report, 23 people nationwide and 3 in Budapest lost their lives in personal injury accidents in January 2026. Based on the flash estimate, the number of fatalities is expected to be 24 nationwide and 5 in Budapest.
The results indicate that the difference between preliminary and final data is moderate at the national level. Nationally, the number of accidents as well as the number of injured and fatalities may fall slightly short of the preliminary reports, while in Budapest upward revisions are likely for several indicators.
The estimates confirm the importance of flash estimation, which contributes to a more accurate and timely understanding of data on road traffic accidents involving personal injury, and ensures that information closer to the final data is available in the period between preliminary announcement and official publications.
Released: 15 May 2026
The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO), on an experimental basis and in a manner unique within the European Union, has produced a flash estimate that allows for a reliable projection of the officially published monthly accident data and bridges the time gap between the information reports issued by the National Police Headquarters (ORFK) and the official publications of the HCSO. In addition, users interested in and using the data released through the flash estimate can access information on trends in accidents involving personal injury earlier than usual.
Flash estimation of accidents
The HCSO receives the data on road traffic accidents involving personal injury from the ORFK on the 40th day following the reference month. The ORFK publishes a preliminary report on its website about the accident data of the previous month already before the data transfer (between the 10th and 20th days following the reference month) for informational purposes. These data are publicly available but cannot be used for official statistical purposes. A systematic underestimation can be observed in the ORFK’s reports compared to the data published by the HCSO. Although this difference amounts to only a few cases or persons (10–30), in the case of personal injury road accidents every single case and person counts significantly, as human lives are involved.
The Second White Paper approved in the European Union in 2011 sets a long-term road safety goal known as Vision Zero, the essence of which is to reduce the number of fatalities and serious injuries from road accidents to near zero across the EU by 2050. Both the EU and the Hungarian objectives (“Everyone is expected home”) highlight the importance of having road accident data available as early and as accurately as possible.
Expected development in the number of accidents: According to the preliminary information from the ORFK, 755 road traffic accidents involving personal injury occurred nationwide in January 2026. Based on our flash estimate, the final figure is expected to be 746, which is 1.2% lower than the preliminary figure.
In Budapest, the initially reported number of 138 accidents may be revised to 141 according to our estimate, corresponding to a 2.3% adjustment. Thus, a larger discrepancy than the national average is likely between the preliminary and final data in the capital city.
Number of injured and fatalities: According to ORFK data, 1,090 people nationwide and 175 in Budapest were injured or lost their lives in road traffic accidents in January 2026.
Based on our forecast, the number of affected persons nationwide is expected to be 1,089, which is essentially unchanged from the preliminary data. In Budapest, this value is projected to be 181, which is 3.3% higher than the initially reported number.
Similarly to the number of accidents, a larger correction is expected in the capital case in the case of injured persons.
Number of fatalities: According to the ORFK’s preliminary report, 23 people nationwide and 3 in Budapest lost their lives in personal injury accidents in January 2026. Based on the flash estimate, the number of fatalities is expected to be 24 nationwide and 5 in Budapest.
The results indicate that the difference between preliminary and final data is moderate at the national level. Nationally, the number of accidents as well as the number of injured and fatalities may fall slightly short of the preliminary reports, while in Budapest upward revisions are likely for several indicators.
The estimates confirm the importance of flash estimation, which contributes to a more accurate and timely understanding of data on road traffic accidents involving personal injury, and ensures that information closer to the final data is available in the period between preliminary announcement and official publications.